Will CA Grau vs. Club Universitario de Deportes end in a draw?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 98¢ · $209 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$209.04
$11.82
63.5¢ → 98¢
+54% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 61.1¢ | $136.84 | $132.07 | -$4.78 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 75.2¢ | $25.65 | $30.23 | +$4.59 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $19.51 | $30.19 | +$10.68 | 55% 1781-1468 (3249) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $6 | $5.4 | -$0.6 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $3.2 | $4.88 | +$1.67 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4 | $3.38 | -$0.63 | 52% 7507-6801 (14308) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $2.01 | $2.89 | +$0.88 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
Invested
$136.84
Value
$132.07
PnL
-$4.78
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$25.65
Value
$30.23
PnL
+$4.59
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$19.51
Value
$30.19
PnL
+$10.68
Record
55%
1781-1468 (3249)
RN1<$100Invested
$6
Value
$5.4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$1.67
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$4
Value
$3.38
PnL
-$0.63
Record
52%
7507-6801 (14308)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.01
Value
$2.89
PnL
+$0.88
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.