Plague pandemic in 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $107K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$106.7K
$2.4K
95.5¢ → 97.9¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- $100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
641h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $45.5K | $46.2K | +$737.77 | 88% 212-28 (240) |
 tetrase | Noavg 95¢ | $41.7K | $42.9K | +$1.2K | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 debased | Noavg 95.1¢ | $8.5K | $8.7K | +$244.42 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
 occasionalAwareness | Noavg 94.5¢ | $7.8K | $8.1K | +$275.43 | 52% 284-262 (546) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 96.2¢ | $578.17 | $588.24 | +$10.07 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 Gemini456 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $149.54 | $156.66 | +$7.11 | 72% 265-102 (367) |
FL flawfence<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $49.86 | $48.79 | +$1.42 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
Invested
$45,470.23
Value
$46.2K
PnL
+$737.77
Record
88%
212-28 (240)
tetraseInvested
$41,730.9
Value
$42.9K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
debasedInvested
$8,452.49
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$244.42
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
occasionalAwarenessInvested
$7,799.89
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$275.43
Record
52%
284-262 (546)
Invested
$578.17
Value
$588.24
PnL
+$10.07
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Gemini456Invested
$149.54
Value
$156.66
PnL
+$7.11
Record
72%
265-102 (367)
Invested
$49.86
Value
$48.79
PnL
+$1.42
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.