Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 99¢ · $47K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$47.4K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 98.7¢

+30% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$47.2K

Total Shares47,774

Combined PnL+$10.8K

No3 traders

Total Value$235.13

Total Shares18,087

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4876h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
-Yang-	Yesavg 74.5¢	$17.6K	$23.4K	+$5.7K	82% 275-61 (336)
SE SeniorLaghetto	Yesavg 80.2¢	$10.2K	$12.6K	+$2.4K	69% 404-180 (584)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 74.5¢	$7.5K	$9.9K	+$2.4K	81% 250-58 (308)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 77.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$279.48	76% 11357-3525 (14882)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Noavg 21.8¢	$2.4K	$141.53	$-2.2K	25% 185-564 (749)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Noavg 38.6¢	$2.7K	$91	$-2.6K	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
TT tttt123CTR	Noavg 51.2¢	$100.72	$2.6	-$98.12	72% 1535-585 (2120)

-Yang-

Yes

Invested

$17,626.77

Value

$23.4K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

82%

275-61 (336)

SeniorLaghetto

Yes

Invested

$10,217.88

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$7,461.11

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$1,140.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$279.48

Record

76%

11357-3525 (14882)

rebotsliafCTR

Invested

$2,382.02

Value

$141.53

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Invested

$2,700

Value

$91

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

tttt123CTR

Invested

$100.72

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$98.12

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4876h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.