Consensus PnL $82K · win rate 24% (143–463, n=606) · was PM monthly #845 · holds 31 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$82.1K
Record
143W / 463L
Win Rate
24.0%
of 606 settled
Batting Avg
77.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2232
Source
PM monthly #845
Trades
912
Markets
762
Volume
$5.1M
Top consensus positions
31 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 31 on the consensus side (61%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $45K · now 65¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $25K · now 73¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $24K · now 56¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $21K · now 70¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $20K · now 84¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $6.6K · now 81¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (50% of 40)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $5.7K · now 16¢ · in at 8¢with the consensus (82% of 33)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $4.8K · now 48¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (39% of 57)
Specialties
567 settled consensus markets · held side won 26% at an average entry of 24¢- Geopolitics
+33 pts
side won 59% of 17 · avg entry 26¢
ROI +17%
- Mentions
+2 pts
side won 12% of 186 · avg entry 10¢
ROI 0%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 42% of 26 · avg entry 33¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 25% of 192 at an average 26¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 61%(won 6% of 348)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 50% of 125)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 56% of 62)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 94% of 32)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.