Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-11-09?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$1.2K
-$12.46
54.3¢ → 51.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 55¢ | $68.39 | $470.56 | -$6.42 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 53.6¢ | $340.18 | $326.67 | -$13.51 | 53% 3157-2761 (5918) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $149 | $150.55 | +$1.55 | 50% 33896-34147 (68043) |
TH TheComboConnoisseurCTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $121.23 | $130.66 | +$9.43 | 53% 1305-1162 (2467) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 53.9¢ | $81.04 | $77.64 | -$3.39 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.5¢ | $9.5 | $9.7 | +$0.2 | 58% 53852-38329 (92181) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.9 | $2.58 | -$0.33 | 50% 24147-24262 (48409) |
Invested
$68.39
Value
$470.56
PnL
-$6.42
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
rayvanmechelenInvested
$340.18
Value
$326.67
PnL
-$13.51
Record
53%
3157-2761 (5918)
Invested
$149
Value
$150.55
PnL
+$1.55
Record
50%
33896-34147 (68043)
Invested
$121.23
Value
$130.66
PnL
+$9.43
Record
53%
1305-1162 (2467)
Invested
$81.04
Value
$77.64
PnL
-$3.39
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$9.5
Value
$9.7
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
53852-38329 (92181)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.33
Record
50%
24147-24262 (48409)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.