Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$18.9K
$5.1K
66.3¢ → 99.5¢
+50% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
4451h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gohst | Noavg 30.5¢ | $2.4K | $7.8K | +$5.4K | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 randomWalkingShrimp | Noavg 89.5¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$423.04 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
 classified | Noavg 95.7¢ | $3.6K | $3.7K | +$138.91 | 58% 843-614 (1457) |
 mombil | Noavg 91.4¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$158.53 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
AV aviato | Noavg 90.1¢ | $559.83 | $619.25 | +$59.42 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
AN Andylow5CTR | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $1.3K | $150.8 | $-1.1K | — 1-0 (1) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYER<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $94.6 | $99.4 | +$4.8 | 57% 47-36 (83) |
 nicoco89<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $20.42 | $21.6 | +$1.18 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
GohstInvested
$2,404.18
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$5.4K
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
randomWalkingShrimpInvested
$4,395.16
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$423.04
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
classifiedInvested
$3,592.95
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$138.91
Record
58%
843-614 (1457)
mombilInvested
$1,793.43
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$158.53
Record
55%
1191-966 (2157)
Invested
$559.83
Value
$619.25
PnL
+$59.42
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
Invested
$1,285.48
Value
$150.8
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
—
1-0 (1)
EsperanzasDESTROYER<$100Invested
$94.6
Value
$99.4
PnL
+$4.8
Record
57%
47-36 (83)
nicoco89<$100Invested
$20.42
Value
$21.6
PnL
+$1.18
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.