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6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $33K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$32.9K
$2.1K
91.6¢ → 98¢
+7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
696h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $26.2K | $25.6K | +$1.9K | 88% 216-29 (245) |
 Talophex | Noavg 96¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$89.14 | 91% 1039-99 (1138) |
PA pagliacci4 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$46.65 | 87% 1681-241 (1922) |
 Donny.T | Noavg 93.8¢ | $586.97 | $612.75 | +$25.77 | 72% 512-199 (711) |
BE Bet1nthedark | Noavg 87.9¢ | $305.63 | $340.51 | +$34.88 | 87% 163-25 (188) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 92.5¢ | $125.45 | $122.88 | +$6.8 | 73% 13530-5008 (18538) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $20.05 | $18.3 | -$1.75 | 49% 22829-23658 (46487) |
Invested
$26,181.09
Value
$25.6K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
88%
216-29 (245)
TalophexInvested
$4,434.07
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$89.14
Record
91%
1039-99 (1138)
Invested
$1,583.46
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$46.65
Record
87%
1681-241 (1922)
Donny.TInvested
$586.97
Value
$612.75
PnL
+$25.77
Record
72%
512-199 (711)
Invested
$305.63
Value
$340.51
PnL
+$34.88
Record
87%
163-25 (188)
Invested
$125.45
Value
$122.88
PnL
+$6.8
Record
73%
13530-5008 (18538)
Invested
$20.05
Value
$18.3
PnL
-$1.75
Record
49%
22829-23658 (46487)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.