Consensus PnL -$24K · win rate 88% (160–21, n=181) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-24.0K
Record
160W / 21L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 181 settled
Batting Avg
83.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#209
Source
PM monthly #997
Record (90 d)
45/45 · 100%
Trades
2,745
Markets
236
Volume
$1.1M
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Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 14 on the consensus side (93%)- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $22K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (94% of 51)
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No $20K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (87% of 23)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $18K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (86% of 64)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No $4.4K · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (58% of 88)
- Will Dana White be the next White House Press Secretary?No $4.1K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (48% of 29)
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $3.5K · now 50¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (65% of 66)
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $3.1K · now 3¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?No $2.2K · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
165 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 85¢- Tennis
+14 pts
side won 91% of 22 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +9%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 95% of 65 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+16 pts
side won 94% of 16 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +16%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 0% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 67% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 85% of 13)
- 70¢ and up: 84%(won 97% of 138)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.