Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$118.92

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 72.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,055

Combined PnL+$38.98

Yes5 traders

Total Value$639.06

Total Shares2,324

Combined PnL+$79.94

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

30 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 67.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$100	66% 487-255 (742)
Car	Noavg 78.3¢	$825.9	$764.87	-$61.02	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$195.83	$224.39	+$28.56	38% 567-944 (1511)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$162.16	$202.7	+$40.54	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.6¢	$84.3	$98.21	+$13.91	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
BA badatthisCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$84	$82.5	-$1.5	65% 2235-1185 (3420)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.9¢	$32.83	$31.26	-$1.57	65% 527-282 (809)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$1,349.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$100

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

Car

Invested

$825.9

Value

$764.87

PnL

-$61.02

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$195.83

Value

$224.39

PnL

+$28.56

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$162.16

Value

$202.7

PnL

+$40.54

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.3

Value

$98.21

PnL

+$13.91

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

badatthisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84

Value

$82.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

65%

2235-1185 (3420)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.83

Value

$31.26

PnL

-$1.57

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

30 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.