Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 60.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,470

Combined PnL+$27.95

Yes1 trader

Total Value$985.4

Total Shares2,495

Combined PnL-$24.95

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

90h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 60¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$25.41	51% 26298-24932 (51230)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$997.88	$985.4	-$24.95	64% 2009-1118 (3127)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 60¢	$299.99	$302.49	+$2.5	58% 47020-33905 (80925)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 60¢	$40.7	$41.04	+$0.34	69% 7246-3212 (10458)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 61¢	$30.5	$30.25	-$0.25	48% 3352-3568 (6920)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 61¢	$19.71	$19.38	-$0.16	53% 16908-15025 (31933)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 60¢	$15.86	$15.86	+$0.13	48% 61710-66575 (128285)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 61¢	$6.71	$6.6	+$0	64% 10064-5621 (15685)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$3	-$0.03	50% 26078-25733 (51811)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,014.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$25.41

Record

51%

26298-24932 (51230)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$997.88

Value

$985.4

PnL

-$24.95

Record

64%

2009-1118 (3127)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$299.99

Value

$302.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

47020-33905 (80925)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$40.7

Value

$41.04

PnL

+$0.34

Record

69%

7246-3212 (10458)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$30.5

Value

$30.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

3352-3568 (6920)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$19.71

Value

$19.38

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

16908-15025 (31933)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$15.86

Value

$15.86

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

61710-66575 (128285)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$6.71

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10064-5621 (15685)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

26078-25733 (51811)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

90h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.