Exact Score: Juventus FC 0 - 0 SSC Napoli?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$2.3K
-$275.42
92¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$7.26 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 91.8¢ | $827.33 | $779.97 | -$47.36 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 87.7¢ | $65.31 | $69.91 | +$4.61 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $31.88 | $31.88 | +$0 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $243.37 | $14.03 | -$229.34 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.69 | $8.66 | -$0.03 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.91 | $4.88 | +$3.97 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
RN1Invested
$1,351.29
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$7.26
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$827.33
Value
$779.97
PnL
-$47.36
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$65.31
Value
$69.91
PnL
+$4.61
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$31.88
Value
$31.88
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$243.37
Value
$14.03
PnL
-$229.34
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.69
Value
$8.66
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$3.97
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.