Will AZ Picerno win on 2026-11-09?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 74¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 9

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$263.06

Combined PnL

$3.74

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 73.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$186.36

Total Shares254

Combined PnL+$2.69

Yes2 traders

Total Value$76.71

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$1.05

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72¢	$114.17	$116.55	+$2.38	50% 33896-34147 (68043)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.9¢	$58.31	$59.4	+$1.09	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 73¢	$29.93	$29.73	-$0.21	48% 176-188 (364)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$17.34	$17.31	-$0.04	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 73¢	$15.14	$15.24	+$0.1	51% 6933-6586 (13519)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$21.5	$14.7	+$0.2	58% 53852-38329 (92181)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 71¢	$10	$10.14	+$0.21	53% 3157-2761 (5918)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$114.17

Value

$116.55

PnL

+$2.38

Record

50%

33896-34147 (68043)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.31

Value

$59.4

PnL

+$1.09

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

biying99999<$100

Invested

$29.93

Value

$29.73

PnL

-$0.21

Record

48%

176-188 (364)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.34

Value

$17.31

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$15.14

Value

$15.24

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

6933-6586 (13519)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$21.5

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

53852-38329 (92181)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10.14

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

3157-2761 (5918)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.