Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 1.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 51¢ · $594 held · ended Nov 5

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$594.5

Combined PnL

-$188.48

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 50.5¢

-27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$529.33

Total Shares1,048

Combined PnL-$194.6

Under3 traders

Total Value$65.17

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$6.11

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Overavg 70.3¢	$632.25	$454.5	-$177.75	58% 47054-33937 (80991)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 60.7¢	$56.51	$47.04	-$8.35	50% 21358-21635 (42993)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$41.5	$42.57	+$1.89	47% 10792-12349 (23141)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 65.9¢	$36.29	$27.79	-$8.5	56% 9166-7311 (16477)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Underavg 15.5¢	$5.98	$19.15	+$3.35	67% 27580-13871 (41451)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$2.58	$3.45	+$0.87	83% 89-18 (107)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$632.25

Value

$454.5

PnL

-$177.75

Record

58%

47054-33937 (80991)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$56.51

Value

$47.04

PnL

-$8.35

Record

50%

21358-21635 (42993)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.5

Value

$42.57

PnL

+$1.89

Record

47%

10792-12349 (23141)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$36.29

Value

$27.79

PnL

-$8.5

Record

56%

9166-7311 (16477)

e46m3CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.98

Value

$19.15

PnL

+$3.35

Record

67%

27580-13871 (41451)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.87

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.