Will Al Faisaly Saudi Club win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$573.84

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 99.4¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,210

Combined PnL+$18.86

Yes4 traders

Total Value$11.08

Total Shares4,432

Combined PnL-$592.7

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bot-rapin	Noavg 99¢	$584.16	$586.52	+$2.36	— 6-0 (6)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 84.6¢	$486.06	$497	+$10.94	53% 23824-20966 (44790)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 94.8¢	$120.41	$119.75	+$5.56	61% 960-606 (1566)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$206.1	$6.03	-$187.75	48% 61871-66733 (128604)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 21.9¢	$340.13	$4	-$336.13	58% 47033-33917 (80950)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$34.42	$0.66	-$33.76	62% 780-471 (1251)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$35.45	$0.39	-$35.06	50% 21344-21627 (42971)

bot-rapin

Invested

$584.16

Value

$586.52

PnL

+$2.36

Record

—

6-0 (6)

cigarettes

Invested

$486.06

Value

$497

PnL

+$10.94

Record

53%

23824-20966 (44790)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$120.41

Value

$119.75

PnL

+$5.56

Record

61%

960-606 (1566)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$206.1

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$187.75

Record

48%

61871-66733 (128604)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$340.13

Value

PnL

-$336.13

Record

58%

47033-33917 (80950)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.42

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$33.76

Record

62%

780-471 (1251)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.45

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$35.06

Record

50%

21344-21627 (42971)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.