Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Vasteraas SK win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 14¢ · $836 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
3 arb excluded
$836
-$61.84
48.6¢ → 14.5¢
-70% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 58.5¢ | $988.38 | $397.84 | -$590.55 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.5¢ | $915.73 | $273.85 | -$641.88 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $72.65 | $123.98 | +$51.33 | |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Noavg 61.3¢ | $138.72 | $147.6 | +$8.87 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.3¢ | $100.77 | $116.8 | +$16.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.7¢ | $37.95 | $30.8 | -$7.15 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $108.49 | $121.91 | +$13.42 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.3¢ | $74.21 | $87.62 | +$13.42 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $34.28 | $34.28 | +$0 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $53.28 | $64.37 | +$11.1 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $45.84 | $52.53 | +$0.48 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 HRTradingCTR | Noavg 49.1¢ | $119.58 | $43.66 | -$75.92 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $5.6 | $8.1 | +$2.5 | 54% 6427-5413 (11840) |
Invested
$988.38
Value
$397.84
PnL
-$590.55
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.72
Value
$147.6
PnL
+$8.87
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Both legs:
Invested
$108.49
Value
$121.91
PnL
+$13.42
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.28
Value
$64.37
PnL
+$11.1
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$45.84
Value
$52.53
PnL
+$0.48
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$119.58
Value
$43.66
PnL
-$75.92
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$2.5
Record
54%
6427-5413 (11840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.