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5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$1.8K
$362.45
73.5¢ → 84.5¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 85%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
394h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bigshort | Yesavg 73.5¢ | $592.21 | $663.99 | +$68 | 83% 357-71 (428) |
 Car | Yesavg 77.6¢ | $441.97 | $475.37 | +$33.4 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Yesavg 67¢ | $970.99 | $422.5 | +$228.75 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
 Porx | Yesavg 78¢ | $156 | $166 | +$8 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $65.95 | $86.01 | +$20.06 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 74.5¢ | $48.29 | $23.94 | +$4.23 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $1.64 | $1.64 | +$0 | 37% 176-295 (471) |
bigshortInvested
$592.21
Value
$663.99
PnL
+$68
Record
83%
357-71 (428)
CarInvested
$441.97
Value
$475.37
PnL
+$33.4
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$970.99
Value
$422.5
PnL
+$228.75
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
PorxInvested
$156
Value
$166
PnL
+$8
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$65.95
Value
$86.01
PnL
+$20.06
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$48.29
Value
$23.94
PnL
+$4.23
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100Invested
$1.64
Value
$1.64
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
176-295 (471)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.