Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Çorum FK vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$-1.5K
24.6¢ → 7.5¢
-70% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $2.2K | $658.75 | $-1.5K | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 85.3¢ | $191.68 | $207.77 | +$16.08 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $376.45 | $176.56 | -$199.89 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $297.68 | $97.36 | -$200.32 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 92¢ | $78.77 | $79.2 | +$0.43 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Noavg 92.5¢ | $163.49 | $163.06 | -$0.43 | 46% 1795-2102 (3897) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $107.1 | $101.03 | -$6.07 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $57.75 | $68.49 | +$10.74 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $33.1 | $19.2 | -$13.9 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $3.89 | $3.83 | -$0.07 | 52% 9022-8174 (17196) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.28 | $0.3 | +$0.02 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
Invested
$2,162.72
Value
$658.75
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$191.68
Value
$207.77
PnL
+$16.08
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$376.45
Value
$176.56
PnL
-$199.89
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Both legs:
Invested
$163.49
Value
$163.06
PnL
-$0.43
Record
46%
1795-2102 (3897)
Invested
$107.1
Value
$101.03
PnL
-$6.07
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
RN1<$100Invested
$57.75
Value
$68.49
PnL
+$10.74
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$33.1
Value
$19.2
PnL
-$13.9
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$3.89
Value
$3.83
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
9022-8174 (17196)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.