Will Eyüpspor vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$3.1K
-$247.11
90.1¢ → 99.8¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$187.51 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $586.5 | $661.07 | +$74.57 | 57% 2111-1562 (3673) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Noavg 87.1¢ | $172.56 | $197.75 | +$25.19 | 46% 1791-2100 (3891) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $50.12 | $52.3 | +$2.17 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 80.7¢ | $135.19 | $36.11 | +$11.42 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $254.58 | $14.41 | -$240.17 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $1.5K | $6.97 | -$91.68 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $81.02 | $4.92 | -$76.1 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $500 | $0.25 | -$139.75 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.42 | $0.14 | -$0.28 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
RN1Invested
$1,901.07
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$187.51
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
oieshfn345Invested
$586.5
Value
$661.07
PnL
+$74.57
Record
57%
2111-1562 (3673)
Invested
$172.56
Value
$197.75
PnL
+$25.19
Record
46%
1791-2100 (3891)
Invested
$50.12
Value
$52.3
PnL
+$2.17
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$135.19
Value
$36.11
PnL
+$11.42
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
Invested
$254.58
Value
$14.41
PnL
-$240.17
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$1,548.7
Value
$6.97
PnL
-$91.68
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$81.02
Value
$4.92
PnL
-$76.1
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$500
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$139.75
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.28
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.