Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-03?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 61¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$386.58

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 60.5¢

+10% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares8,802

Combined PnL+$434.12

Yes4 traders

Total Value$392.9

Total Shares986

Combined PnL-$47.54

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 53.8¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$186.63	51% 17604-16613 (34217)
DV dv-pm	Noavg 60¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.14	50% 2924-2885 (5809)
TN tnl	Noavg 51¢	$807.4	$1.0K	+$158.74	51% 518-491 (1009)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 54¢	$1.8K	$783.31	+$67.89	58% 43592-31705 (75297)
FE ferdinand2	Noavg 60¢	$239.92	$241.92	+$2	51% 991-958 (1949)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 46.7¢	$278.11	$236.16	-$41.96	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
OD OddstormCTR	Yesavg 41¢	$129.56	$124.82	-$4.74	48% 7156-7647 (14803)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$69.13	$76.2	+$7.71	53% 6368-5753 (12121)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59.4¢	$51.89	$52.43	+$0.98	57% 17234-12896 (30130)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$22.96	$22.4	-$0.84	58% 29905-21964 (51869)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$9.52	$9.52	+$0	44% 6439-8045 (14484)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Noavg 52¢	$3.2	$3.72	+$0.52	53% 8070-7281 (15351)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.5	$3	+$0.53	53% 2312-2036 (4348)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,161.39

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$186.63

Record

51%

17604-16613 (34217)

dv-pm

Invested

$1,096.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.14

Record

50%

2924-2885 (5809)

tnl

Invested

$807.4

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$158.74

Record

51%

518-491 (1009)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,757.33

Value

$783.31

PnL

+$67.89

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

ferdinand2

Invested

$239.92

Value

$241.92

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

991-958 (1949)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$278.11

Value

$236.16

PnL

-$41.96

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

OddstormCTR

Yes

Invested

$129.56

Value

$124.82

PnL

-$4.74

Record

48%

7156-7647 (14803)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$69.13

Value

$76.2

PnL

+$7.71

Record

53%

6368-5753 (12121)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$51.89

Value

$52.43

PnL

+$0.98

Record

57%

17234-12896 (30130)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.96

Value

$22.4

PnL

-$0.84

Record

58%

29905-21964 (51869)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

iWasEnough<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

8070-7281 (15351)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

PnL

+$0.53

Record

53%

2312-2036 (4348)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.