Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 0 FC Bayern München?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 96¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 3

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$102.66

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 96.2¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,144

Combined PnL-$111.57

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.8

Total Shares748

Combined PnL+$8.91

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 97.4¢	$5.9K	$5.8K	-$76.36	53% 59235-51541 (110776)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 99.7¢	$997	$961.5	-$35.5	56% 7690-6106 (13796)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$71.63	$72.05	+$0.42	50% 35778-35246 (71024)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$27.07	$26.92	-$0.15	53% 1052-943 (1995)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$17.79	$26.87	+$9.09	47% 14501-16071 (30572)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$4.94	$4.96	+$0.02	58% 18891-13903 (32794)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.05	$0.96	-$0.09	54% 1090-911 (2001)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$1.05	$0.96	-$0.09	52% 992-931 (1923)

RN1

Invested

$5,884.43

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$76.36

Record

53%

59235-51541 (110776)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$997

Value

$961.5

PnL

-$35.5

Record

56%

7690-6106 (13796)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$71.63

Value

$72.05

PnL

+$0.42

Record

50%

35778-35246 (71024)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$27.07

Value

$26.92

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

1052-943 (1995)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.79

Value

$26.87

PnL

+$9.09

Record

47%

14501-16071 (30572)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

18891-13903 (32794)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.09

Record

54%

1090-911 (2001)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

992-931 (1923)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.