Exact Score: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 0 KKS Lech Poznań?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$212.22

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,975

Combined PnL-$240.68

Yes2 traders

Total Value$602.97

Total Shares2,088

Combined PnL+$452.9

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 94.2¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$232.32	50% 1329-1304 (2633)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$146.72	$593.9	+$447.18	53% 61372-53688 (115060)
VE Venusian	Noavg 91.6¢	$404.08	$403.79	-$0.29	51% 1384-1348 (2732)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 93.7¢	$370.42	$318.22	-$52.2	52% 1380-1295 (2675)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 89.8¢	$160.27	$176.68	+$16.41	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 84¢	$137.55	$149.83	+$12.28	49% 14711-15381 (30092)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83.2¢	$100.13	$118.36	+$18.23	51% 25760-24462 (50222)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90.7¢	$100.98	$101.87	+$0.89	64% 9969-5597 (15566)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$73.1	$69.42	-$3.68	51% 37671-36895 (74566)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$25.36	$9.07	+$5.72	58% 46700-33657 (80357)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,393.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$232.32

Record

50%

1329-1304 (2633)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$146.72

Value

$593.9

PnL

+$447.18

Record

53%

61372-53688 (115060)

Venusian

Invested

$404.08

Value

$403.79

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

1384-1348 (2732)

LightParadox

Invested

$370.42

Value

$318.22

PnL

-$52.2

Record

52%

1380-1295 (2675)

38791873984189

Invested

$160.27

Value

$176.68

PnL

+$16.41

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$137.55

Value

$149.83

PnL

+$12.28

Record

49%

14711-15381 (30092)

Flaznorp

Invested

$100.13

Value

$118.36

PnL

+$18.23

Record

51%

25760-24462 (50222)

GC-P

Invested

$100.98

Value

$101.87

PnL

+$0.89

Record

64%

9969-5597 (15566)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$73.1

Value

$69.42

PnL

-$3.68

Record

51%

37671-36895 (74566)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.36

Value

$9.07

PnL

+$5.72

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.