Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-11-05?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 81¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$39.18

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 80.5¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,976

Combined PnL+$51.75

Yes2 traders

Total Value$502.85

Total Shares2,515

Combined PnL-$12.57

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 79.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$18.37	64% 9826-5492 (15318)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 79¢	$1.0K	$814.66	+$14.95	50% 1292-1281 (2573)
GC GC-P	Noavg 79¢	$773.61	$622.76	+$11.6	64% 9866-5558 (15424)
FV FvalpCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$500	$500	-$12.5	63% 68-40 (108)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 80.2¢	$286.8	$287.81	+$1.01	51% 25532-24237 (49769)
CA Cannae	Noavg 79¢	$322.44	$259.57	+$4.84	53% 16615-14776 (31391)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 79¢	$25.99	$20.92	+$0.39	50% 21082-21326 (42408)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 79¢	$24	$19.32	+$0.36	51% 1352-1319 (2671)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$12.77	$12.8	+$0.24	49% 3323-3508 (6831)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$14.63	$2.85	-$0.07	50% 28266-28152 (56418)

NM-P

Invested

$1,198.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$18.37

Record

64%

9826-5492 (15318)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,012

Value

$814.66

PnL

+$14.95

Record

50%

1292-1281 (2573)

GC-P

Invested

$773.61

Value

$622.76

PnL

+$11.6

Record

64%

9866-5558 (15424)

FvalpCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

-$12.5

Record

63%

68-40 (108)

Flaznorp

Invested

$286.8

Value

$287.81

PnL

+$1.01

Record

51%

25532-24237 (49769)

Cannae

Invested

$322.44

Value

$259.57

PnL

+$4.84

Record

53%

16615-14776 (31391)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$25.99

Value

$20.92

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

21082-21326 (42408)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$19.32

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

1352-1319 (2671)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$12.77

Value

$12.8

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

3323-3508 (6831)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.63

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

28266-28152 (56418)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.