Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-05?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 36¢ · $957 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$957.16
-$18.01
35.6¢ → 35.5¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 35¢ | $280.14 | $280.14 | -$0 | 39% 1400-2160 (3560) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 35¢ | $259.6 | $263.31 | +$3.71 | 40% 1398-2089 (3487) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 37.5¢ | $356.91 | $150.27 | -$20.02 | 58% 45573-32987 (78560) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $101.3 | $98.51 | -$2.8 | 51% 24452-23135 (47587) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.1¢ | $66.02 | $63.94 | +$0.91 | 50% 20843-21072 (41915) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $43.41 | $43.41 | -$0 | 48% 7290-7774 (15064) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.1¢ | $25.37 | $24.57 | -$0.35 | 49% 6216-6354 (12570) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 34.2¢ | $14.03 | $14.36 | +$0.54 | 48% 59434-63450 (122884) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $12.33 | $12.33 | -$0 | 50% 36455-35915 (72370) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $4.57 | $4.57 | +$0 | 53% 16539-14712 (31251) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $1.75 | +$0 | 50% 25577-25281 (50858) |
Invested
$280.14
Value
$280.14
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
1400-2160 (3560)
Invested
$259.6
Value
$263.31
PnL
+$3.71
Record
40%
1398-2089 (3487)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$356.91
Value
$150.27
PnL
-$20.02
Record
58%
45573-32987 (78560)
Invested
$101.3
Value
$98.51
PnL
-$2.8
Record
51%
24452-23135 (47587)
Invested
$66.02
Value
$63.94
PnL
+$0.91
Record
50%
20843-21072 (41915)
Invested
$43.41
Value
$43.41
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
7290-7774 (15064)
Invested
$25.37
Value
$24.57
PnL
-$0.35
Record
49%
6216-6354 (12570)
Invested
$14.03
Value
$14.36
PnL
+$0.54
Record
48%
59434-63450 (122884)
Invested
$12.33
Value
$12.33
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
36455-35915 (72370)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$4.57
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16539-14712 (31251)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.75
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
25577-25281 (50858)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.