UFC Fight Night: Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli (Flyweight, Prelims)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Marcos Degli (57%) · Marcos Degli at 69¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8

Mitch Raposo32¢Marcos Degli68¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marcos Degli

Consensus Traders

Marcos Degli 57%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$26.45

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 68.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarcos Degli at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marcos Degli

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mitch Raposo32%

Marcos Degli69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marcos Degli4 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares10,151

Combined PnL+$139.31

Mitch Raposo3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares7,703

Combined PnL-$112.87

Marcos Degli — 57%Mitch Raposo — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Marcos Degli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMarcos Degli 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpMitch Raposo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMarcos Degli 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Marcos Degli 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SineNooneEI	Marcos Degliavg 68.1¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$140.03	53% 948-833 (1781)
FK FKMYCTR	Mitch Raposoavg 33¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$113.4	63% 41-24 (65)
OM omnibus-076daa	Marcos Degliavg 69.5¢	$353.53	$348.26	-$5.28	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
VeryLucky888	Marcos Degliavg 67.4¢	$286.87	$191.31	+$4.42	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100	Mitch Raposoavg 31¢	$38.79	$39.42	+$0.63	50% 549-553 (1102)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Marcos Degliavg 68¢	$19.89	$20.04	+$0.15	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Mitch Raposoavg 32¢	$5.88	$5.79	-$0.09	49% 1843-1935 (3778)

SineNooneEI

Marcos Degli

Invested

$6,357.24

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$140.03

Record

53%

948-833 (1781)

FKMYCTR

Mitch Raposo

Invested

$2,494.79

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$113.4

Record

63%

41-24 (65)

omnibus-076daa

Marcos Degli

Invested

$353.53

Value

$348.26

PnL

-$5.28

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

VeryLucky888

Marcos Degli

Invested

$286.87

Value

$191.31

PnL

+$4.42

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100

Mitch Raposo

Invested

$38.79

Value

$39.42

PnL

+$0.63

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Marcos Degli

Invested

$19.89

Value

$20.04

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

VenusianCTR<$100

Mitch Raposo

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.79

PnL

-$0.09

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Research grade

NeutralMarcos Degli at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Marcos Degli

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Marcos Degli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMarcos Degli 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpMitch Raposo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMarcos Degli 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Marcos Degli 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marcos Degli wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.