Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FK Polissia win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 38¢ · $879 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
1 arb excluded
$878.98
$102.48
56¢ → 38¢
-32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
93h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $277.21 | $281.31 | +$4.1 | 50% 28303-28194 (56497) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38.3¢ | $107.35 | $173.77 | +$70.61 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60¢ | $169.8 | $107.54 | -$66.51 | |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 36.9¢ | $167.05 | $280.41 | +$113.36 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Yesavg 56¢ | $245.96 | $172.79 | -$73.17 | 54% 2563-2222 (4785) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 32.6¢ | $36.58 | $72.94 | +$36.36 | 55% 1357-1128 (2485) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $30.74 | $50.82 | +$20.08 | 49% 14657-15357 (30014) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 40.2¢ | $225.89 | $15.09 | +$5.3 | 58% 46317-33437 (79754) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $5.07 | $5.62 | +$0.55 | 58% 51384-37337 (88721) |
Invested
$277.21
Value
$281.31
PnL
+$4.1
Record
50%
28303-28194 (56497)
Both legs:
Invested
$167.05
Value
$280.41
PnL
+$113.36
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$245.96
Value
$172.79
PnL
-$73.17
Record
54%
2563-2222 (4785)
Invested
$36.58
Value
$72.94
PnL
+$36.36
Record
55%
1357-1128 (2485)
Invested
$30.74
Value
$50.82
PnL
+$20.08
Record
49%
14657-15357 (30014)
VeryLucky888Invested
$225.89
Value
$15.09
PnL
+$5.3
Record
58%
46317-33437 (79754)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$0.55
Record
58%
51384-37337 (88721)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.