Will FK Kharkiv win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$742.48

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 82.5¢

+55% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,415

Combined PnL+$706.61

Yes1 trader

Total Value$38.04

Total Shares217

Combined PnL+$35.87

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 53.1¢	$899.29	$1.4K	+$491.77	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 53¢	$337.17	$524.84	+$187.67	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.17	$38.04	+$35.87	47% 116-130 (246)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 55¢	$23.83	$35.75	+$11.92	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 52.9¢	$12.24	$19.1	+$6.86	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$10.19	$15.5	+$5.54	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 54¢	$5.4	$8.24	+$2.85	59% 52401-37126 (89527)

Flaznorp

Invested

$899.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$491.77

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$337.17

Value

$524.84

PnL

+$187.67

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.17

Value

$38.04

PnL

+$35.87

Record

47%

116-130 (246)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$23.83

Value

$35.75

PnL

+$11.92

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$12.24

Value

$19.1

PnL

+$6.86

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$10.19

Value

$15.5

PnL

+$5.54

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$8.24

PnL

+$2.85

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.