U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$4.0K
$909.85
60.2¢ → 94¢
+56% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4924h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
11 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DirkDiggler67 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $2.2K | $3.3K | +$1.1K | 61% 532-345 (877) |
KR Krass | Noavg 51.3¢ | $336.28 | $603.37 | +$267.09 | 74% 454-156 (610) |
 KnureKnumeCTR | Yesavg 36.3¢ | $325.7 | $71.88 | -$253.82 | 48% 403-443 (846) |
 ScottyNoooCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $254.15 | $39.69 | -$214.46 | 50% 1594-1578 (3172) |
SI singularitymanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $33.34 | $15.36 | -$16.91 | 43% 159-209 (368) |
LI linethCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $7.49 | $5.67 | -$1.57 | 44% 283-364 (647) |
DirkDiggler67Invested
$2,173.03
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
61%
532-345 (877)
Invested
$336.28
Value
$603.37
PnL
+$267.09
Record
74%
454-156 (610)
KnureKnumeCTRInvested
$325.7
Value
$71.88
PnL
-$253.82
Record
48%
403-443 (846)
ScottyNoooCTRInvested
$254.15
Value
$39.69
PnL
-$214.46
Record
50%
1594-1578 (3172)
Invested
$33.34
Value
$15.36
PnL
-$16.91
Record
43%
159-209 (368)
Invested
$7.49
Value
$5.67
PnL
-$1.57
Record
44%
283-364 (647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.