US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $20K held · ends Dec 31

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$19.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 96.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares19,444

Combined PnL+$750.35

Yes2 traders

Total Value$736.67

Total Shares21,048

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

2625h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Talophex	Noavg 92.2¢	$9.5K	$9.2K	+$351.26	91% 929-95 (1024)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 92.6¢	$6.0K	$6.3K	+$252.45	80% 437-110 (547)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 91¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$102.72	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
GayPride	Noavg 93.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$43.79	49% 357-367 (724)
8D 8dcc906a9bCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$20	$435.12	$-1.7K	32% 50-104 (154)
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$800	$301.56	-$498.43	49% 112-118 (230)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$9.53	$9.65	+$0.13	61% 839-544 (1383)

Talophex

Invested

$9,503.77

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$351.26

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

Kevindoto

Invested

$6,034.24

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$252.45

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,699.62

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$102.72

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

GayPride

Invested

$1,439.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$43.79

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

8dcc906a9bCTR

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$435.12

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

32%

50-104 (154)

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR

Yes

Invested

$800

Value

$301.56

PnL

-$498.43

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$9.53

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$0.13

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

2625h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.