US imports Russian diesel by December 31?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 61¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$4.5K
$-1.4K
84.2¢ → 61¢
-28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
263h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 theta-thunberg | Yesavg 86.7¢ | $4.8K | $3.3K | $-1.4K | 56% 429-337 (766) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 68.1¢ | $521.63 | $524.99 | +$3.36 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 24.4¢ | $198.25 | $337.3 | +$139.04 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
 Barkshire-Hathaway | Yesavg 86¢ | $230.14 | $167.25 | -$70.91 | 64% 1093-623 (1716) |
 TheKinginYellowCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $50 | $69.64 | +$22.32 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.1¢ | $68.16 | $14.99 | -$7 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Yesavg 79.3¢ | $17.28 | $13.42 | -$3.86 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
theta-thunbergInvested
$4,780.15
Value
$3.3K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
56%
429-337 (766)
Invested
$521.63
Value
$524.99
PnL
+$3.36
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
Invested
$198.25
Value
$337.3
PnL
+$139.04
Record
36%
16080-28084 (44164)
Barkshire-HathawayInvested
$230.14
Value
$167.25
PnL
-$70.91
Record
64%
1093-623 (1716)
TheKinginYellowCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$69.64
PnL
+$22.32
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
Invested
$68.16
Value
$14.99
PnL
-$7
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$17.28
Value
$13.42
PnL
-$3.86
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.