Consensus PnL $114K · win rate 66% (695–351, n=1046) · hand-picked wallet · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$113.6K
Record
695W / 351L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 1046 settled
Batting Avg
59.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#886
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
20,954
Markets
1,756
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 15 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $50K · now 0¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $20K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $18K · now 10¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes $4.2K · now 84¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes $4.0K · now 83¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Yes $3.4K · now 84¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.4K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Yes $879 · now 91¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
Specialties
1,460 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 51¢- Mentions
+9 pts
side won 62% of 1011 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +15%
- Politics
+8 pts
side won 62% of 243 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +10%
- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 49% of 112 · avg entry 42¢
ROI −1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 21% of 365)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 46% of 334)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 73% of 335)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 92% of 426)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.