US imports Russian diesel by March 31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 74¢ · $6K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$5.7K
$816.47
58.7¢ → 74¢
+26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
168h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1N 1nvoker1 | Noavg 58.6¢ | $3.7K | $4.7K | +$977.21 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $852.53 | $746.8 | -$105.72 | — |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 31.1¢ | $1.4K | $144.86 | -$32.48 | — |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $81.77 | $54.18 | -$27.59 | — |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 71.1¢ | $35.89 | $38.69 | +$2.81 | — |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $9.27 | $11.51 | +$2.24 | — |
Invested
$3,713
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$977.21
Record
—
Invested
$852.53
Value
$746.8
PnL
-$105.72
Record
—
Invested
$1,406.65
Value
$144.86
PnL
-$32.48
Record
—
Invested
$81.77
Value
$54.18
PnL
-$27.59
Record
—
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$35.89
Value
$38.69
PnL
+$2.81
Record
—
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9.27
Value
$11.51
PnL
+$2.24
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.