Will AS Roma vs. Servette FC Chênois Féminin end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 96¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$7.7K
$93.32
93.7¢ → 95.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92¢ | $4.6K | $4.9K | +$264.33 | 50% 1421-1422 (2843) |
 RN1 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0.58 | 58% 3766-2722 (6488) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.6¢ | $725.29 | $725.68 | +$0.39 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.1¢ | $361.78 | $359.65 | -$2.13 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $80.09 | $101.47 | +$21.38 | 26% 226-653 (879) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $259.1 | $90.69 | -$168.42 | 26% 226-645 (871) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $13.94 | $15.37 | +$1.43 | 25% 222-667 (889) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $31.02 | $7.95 | -$23.07 | 25% 224-665 (889) |
Invested
$4,610.57
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$264.33
Record
50%
1421-1422 (2843)
RN1Invested
$1,529.35
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0.58
Record
58%
3766-2722 (6488)
Invested
$725.29
Value
$725.68
PnL
+$0.39
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$361.78
Value
$359.65
PnL
-$2.13
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$80.09
Value
$101.47
PnL
+$21.38
Record
26%
226-653 (879)
Invested
$259.1
Value
$90.69
PnL
-$168.42
Record
26%
226-645 (871)
Invested
$13.94
Value
$15.37
PnL
+$1.43
Record
25%
222-667 (889)
Invested
$31.02
Value
$7.95
PnL
-$23.07
Record
25%
224-665 (889)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.