Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-10?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 19¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$131.24
$1.9
Research grade
AvoidNo at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadoxARB<$100 | Yesavg 81¢ | $66.31 | $66.31 | +$0 | 24% 201-627 (828) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 81¢ | $35.89 | $35.89 | +$0 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 19¢ | $30.42 | $30.42 | -$0 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.3¢ | $37.65 | $39.45 | +$1.81 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $20.41 | $9.47 | +$0.1 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $8.49 | $8.27 | -$0.22 | 24% 204-633 (837) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Yesavg 81¢ | $4.33 | $4.33 | +$0 | 24% 200-638 (838) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.1¢ | $2.94 | $3.09 | +$0.15 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $0.26 | $0.33 | +$0.07 | 47% 147-166 (313) |
Invested
$66.31
Value
$66.31
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
201-627 (828)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.65
Value
$39.45
PnL
+$1.81
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$20.41
Value
$9.47
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
Invested
$8.49
Value
$8.27
PnL
-$0.22
Record
24%
204-633 (837)
Invested
$4.33
Value
$4.33
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
200-638 (838)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$3.09
PnL
+$0.15
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.33
PnL
+$0.07
Record
47%
147-166 (313)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.