BK Häcken FF vs. Chelsea FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$5.8K
$2.4K
52.4¢ → 100¢
+91% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 48.6¢ | $1.6K | $3.4K | +$1.7K | 61% 630-411 (1041) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 61.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$495.06 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 50.8¢ | $152.5 | $287.67 | +$141.63 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 49¢ | $133.73 | $272.89 | +$139.16 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Underavg 52¢ | $132.62 | $239.73 | +$107.12 | 60% 422-286 (708) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 52.7¢ | $44.67 | $66.37 | +$21.71 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 12¢ | $199.5 | $0.83 | -$198.67 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
Invested
$1,629.56
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
61%
630-411 (1041)
Invested
$1,130.93
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$495.06
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
VeryLucky888Invested
$152.5
Value
$287.67
PnL
+$141.63
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$133.73
Value
$272.89
PnL
+$139.16
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$132.62
Value
$239.73
PnL
+$107.12
Record
60%
422-286 (708)
Invested
$44.67
Value
$66.37
PnL
+$21.71
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
RN1CTRInvested
$199.5
Value
$0.83
PnL
-$198.67
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.