Will Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 93¢ · $724 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$724.11
$3.63
92¢ → 92.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92¢ | $356.74 | $358.78 | +$2.04 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $148.11 | $149.03 | +$0.92 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 92¢ | $103.43 | $103.43 | +$0 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $83.61 | $83.61 | +$0 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $13.27 | $13.27 | +$0 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $10.97 | $9.99 | +$0.25 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $3.84 | $4.01 | +$0.17 | 38% 137-222 (359) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.75 | $2 | +$0.25 | 31% 385-869 (1254) |
Invested
$356.74
Value
$358.78
PnL
+$2.04
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$148.11
Value
$149.03
PnL
+$0.92
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$103.43
Value
$103.43
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$83.61
Value
$83.61
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$13.27
Value
$13.27
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$4.01
PnL
+$0.17
Record
38%
137-222 (359)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.25
Record
31%
385-869 (1254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.