Exact Score: Juventus FC 0 - 3 OL Lyonnes?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 90¢ · $476 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$476.18
$0.17
89¢ → 90¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 89¢ | $283.91 | $283.91 | -$0 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $61.81 | $61.81 | +$0 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $44.5 | -$0 | 30% 371-861 (1232) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $26.82 | $26.82 | +$0 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $24.09 | $24.09 | +$0 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $22 | $22 | +$0 | 51% 442-417 (859) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $7.43 | $7.6 | +$0.17 | 45% 262-316 (578) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $5.45 | $5.45 | +$0 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
Invested
$283.91
Value
$283.91
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
Invested
$61.81
Value
$61.81
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$44.5
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
371-861 (1232)
Invested
$26.82
Value
$26.82
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$24.09
Value
$24.09
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$22
Value
$22
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
442-417 (859)
Invested
$7.43
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.17
Record
45%
262-316 (578)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$5.45
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.