Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women vs. HB Køge: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$5.5K
$954.46
70.4¢ → 100¢
+42% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 73.7¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$106.03 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
 RN1 | Underavg 71¢ | $1.0K | $1.5K | +$426.43 | 57% 4034-3050 (7084) |
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 60.9¢ | $613.24 | $956.9 | +$343.66 | 60% 648-431 (1079) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 75.1¢ | $612.22 | $794.52 | +$182.3 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 60.3¢ | $120.5 | $183.91 | +$73.17 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
SE sentrioCTR | Overavg 35¢ | $120.38 | $51.81 | -$68.56 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 36¢ | $101.21 | $11.25 | -$89.96 | 30% 380-875 (1255) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $20.93 | $2.33 | -$18.6 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
Invested
$1,936.15
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$106.03
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
RN1Invested
$1,045.83
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$426.43
Record
57%
4034-3050 (7084)
Invested
$613.24
Value
$956.9
PnL
+$343.66
Record
60%
648-431 (1079)
Invested
$612.22
Value
$794.52
PnL
+$182.3
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
VeryLucky888Invested
$120.5
Value
$183.91
PnL
+$73.17
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
Invested
$120.38
Value
$51.81
PnL
-$68.56
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
Invested
$101.21
Value
$11.25
PnL
-$89.96
Record
30%
380-875 (1255)
Invested
$20.93
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$18.6
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.