Will Oud-Heverlee Leuven Women win on 2026-11-11?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 84¢ · $622 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
1 arb excluded
$621.74
$4.79
80.8¢ → 83.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 80.6¢ | $255.23 | $261.34 | +$6.11 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 81¢ | $177.06 | $182.39 | +$5.34 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $84.84 | $86.77 | +$1.93 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81¢ | $51.84 | $52.8 | +$0.96 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17¢ | $33 | $33.97 | +$0.97 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 81.1¢ | $33.3 | $33.88 | +$0.57 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $29.27 | $25.42 | -$3.85 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $13.95 | $12.85 | -$1.1 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $10.41 | $9.36 | -$1.05 | 20% 150-617 (767) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $8.16 | $7.09 | -$1.07 | 31% 385-869 (1254) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $2.81 | $2.65 | -$0.16 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
Invested
$255.23
Value
$261.34
PnL
+$6.11
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$177.06
Value
$182.39
PnL
+$5.34
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$84.84
Value
$86.77
PnL
+$1.93
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.3
Value
$33.88
PnL
+$0.57
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$29.27
Value
$25.42
PnL
-$3.85
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
Invested
$13.95
Value
$12.85
PnL
-$1.1
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$10.41
Value
$9.36
PnL
-$1.05
Record
20%
150-617 (767)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$7.09
PnL
-$1.07
Record
31%
385-869 (1254)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.16
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.