Real Madrid CF Femenino leading at halftime?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$1.1K
$252.8
72.4¢ → 100¢
+38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 80.4¢ | $521.6 | $648.63 | +$127.03 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 67.1¢ | $145.24 | $216.33 | +$71.09 | 57% 1516-1167 (2683) |
LO lonmi2511 | Noavg 45¢ | $66.87 | $123.34 | +$56.47 | 61% 630-411 (1041) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $62.55 | $62.55 | -$0 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $27.27 | $27.27 | +$0 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $5 | $5.15 | +$0.15 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $2.88 | $0.94 | -$1.94 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
Invested
$521.6
Value
$648.63
PnL
+$127.03
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$145.24
Value
$216.33
PnL
+$71.09
Record
57%
1516-1167 (2683)
Invested
$66.87
Value
$123.34
PnL
+$56.47
Record
61%
630-411 (1041)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$62.55
Value
$62.55
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
Invested
$27.27
Value
$27.27
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$0.15
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$1.94
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.