Fenerbahce Istanbul vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$20.91
54.4¢ → 56¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Overavg 54¢ | $539.99 | $529.99 | -$10 | 2% 1-53 (54) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 55¢ | $502.93 | $485.82 | +$1.35 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 45.6¢ | $352.84 | $353.02 | +$0.18 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
VE VenusianCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $263.56 | $252.1 | -$11.46 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Overavg 54.4¢ | $66.6 | $67.13 | +$0.54 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.4¢ | $44.87 | $45.41 | +$0.54 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45¢ | $21.73 | $21.73 | -$0 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $20.08 | $19.21 | -$0.87 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $13.01 | $12.72 | -$0.29 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $3.92 | $4.1 | +$0.18 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
Invested
$539.99
Value
$529.99
PnL
-$10
Record
2%
1-53 (54)
Invested
$502.93
Value
$485.82
PnL
+$1.35
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$352.84
Value
$353.02
PnL
+$0.18
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$263.56
Value
$252.1
PnL
-$11.46
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$66.6
Value
$67.13
PnL
+$0.54
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.08
Value
$19.21
PnL
-$0.87
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$13.01
Value
$12.72
PnL
-$0.29
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
Invested
$3.92
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0.18
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.