Weed rescheduled by December 31?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 91¢ · $42K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$41.7K
$10.4K
58.2¢ → 90.5¢
+56% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
1703h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
13 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Noavg 57.2¢ | $24.4K | $38.5K | +$14.2K | 53% 915-808 (1723) |
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $2.4K | $966.84 | $-1.4K | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
FU Fulgurator | Noavg 90.4¢ | $862.82 | $862.23 | -$0.59 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
 debasedCTR | Yesavg 40.8¢ | $2.1K | $505.05 | $-1.6K | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
CO cocococococo | Noavg 81.7¢ | $435.53 | $481.36 | +$45.83 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 71.5¢ | $187.84 | $197.58 | -$685.53 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
LI linethCTR | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $257.53 | $132.86 | -$106.91 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANInvested
$24,353.01
Value
$38.5K
PnL
+$14.2K
Record
53%
915-808 (1723)
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$2,369.77
Value
$966.84
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
Invested
$862.82
Value
$862.23
PnL
-$0.59
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
debasedCTRInvested
$2,107.96
Value
$505.05
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
Invested
$435.53
Value
$481.36
PnL
+$45.83
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Invested
$187.84
Value
$197.58
PnL
-$685.53
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$257.53
Value
$132.86
PnL
-$106.91
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.