Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$-15.8K

Smart Money Entry

18.8¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,274

Combined PnL+$184.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$36.52

Total Shares36,515

Combined PnL$-16.0K

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

234 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 98.4¢	$651.04	$637.2	+$8.96	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
LI lissartter	Noavg 69¢	$267.14	$380.11	+$112.98	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
TT tttt123	Noavg 76.5¢	$143.61	$176.46	+$32.85	72% 1535-585 (2120)
ME melganis<$100	Noavg 63¢	$50	$79.29	+$29.29	75% 1597-541 (2138)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR	Yesavg 18.9¢	$6.5K	$33.85	$-15.5K	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 18.3¢	$409.67	$2.24	-$396.86	68% 2074-958 (3032)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.3¢	$70.66	$0.42	-$70.23	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$651.04

Value

$637.2

PnL

+$8.96

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

lissartter

Invested

$267.14

Value

$380.11

PnL

+$112.98

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

tttt123

Invested

$143.61

Value

$176.46

PnL

+$32.85

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

melganis<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$79.29

PnL

+$29.29

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,473.57

Value

$33.85

PnL

$-15.5K

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$409.67

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$396.86

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.66

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$70.23

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

234 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.