Consensus PnL $236K · win rate 68% (1343–636, n=1979) · was PM monthly #774 · holds 152 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$235.7K
Record
1343W / 636L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 1979 settled
Batting Avg
71.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#808
Source
PM monthly #774 + pinned
Trades
129,104
Markets
3,478
Volume
$11.4M
Top consensus positions
152 in listed consensus markets · 117 of 152 on the consensus side (77%)- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $7.0K · now 90¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (66% of 41)
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $6.6K · now 73¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (56% of 16)
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31?No $6.1K · now 65¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $5.2K · now 53¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (80% of 20)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?No $4.9K · now 75¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes $4.7K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes $4.7K · now 62¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No $4.6K · now 59¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (38% of 16)
Specialties
2,111 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 75¢- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 80% of 578 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +4%
- Elections
+6 pts
side won 86% of 199 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +5%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 88% of 286 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 12% of 376)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 57% of 80)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 76% of 145)
- 70¢ and up: 72%(won 98% of 1510)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.