Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $31 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$31.17
$-1.1K
3.3¢ → 0.1¢
-98% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
187 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL ololololololololoCTR | Yesavg 2¢ | $205.01 | $24.89 | -$478.58 | 35% 41-77 (118) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $476.66 | $3.1 | -$473.69 | 47% 85-95 (180) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.93 | $1.93 | -$147.8 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $0.5 | $0.99 | +$0.5 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
FO FolletinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $5.12 | $0.12 | -$5.01 | 69% 423-188 (611) |
LO Logan.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $0.04 | $0.08 | +$0.04 | 41% 648-925 (1573) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $3.8 | $0.05 | -$3.75 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
Invested
$205.01
Value
$24.89
PnL
-$478.58
Record
35%
41-77 (118)
Invested
$476.66
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$473.69
Record
47%
85-95 (180)
Invested
$1.93
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$147.8
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.5
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$5.01
Record
69%
423-188 (611)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0.04
Record
41%
648-925 (1573)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$3.75
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.