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2C
Consensus PnL $219K · win rate 49% (21–22, n=43) · was PM monthly #991 · holds 9 consensus positions
0x2c4ca29d...e3b1cb39Polymarket
🐋Whale⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$218.8K
Record
21W / 22L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 43 settled
Batting Avg
42.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1865
Source
PM monthly #991
Trades
422
Markets
96
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $435K · now 98¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (91% of 43)
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No $87K · now 98¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No $1.5K · now 91¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No $1.3K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No $996 · now 3¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Yes $242 · now 5¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes $28 · now 1¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $25 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
26 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 59¢- Geopolitics
+39 pts
side won 94% of 18 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +19%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 67% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 100% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 100% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 100% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.