Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$179.04

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 79.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,874

Combined PnL-$79.67

Yes2 traders

Total Value$119.48

Total Shares583

Combined PnL-$99.37

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

2145h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 79¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$137.94	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
XC xcaiox	Noavg 77¢	$100	$321.11	+$21.11	77% 200-61 (261)
KimchiCapital	Noavg 69.7¢	$115.26	$131.43	+$16.16	75% 540-176 (716)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 82.1¢	$101.36	$98.43	-$2.94	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 44.4¢	$161.97	$74.75	-$87.21	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.1¢	$56.89	$44.73	-$12.16	51% 527-509 (1036)
Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100	Noavg 31¢	$15.3	$39.23	+$23.93	50% 415-417 (832)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,832.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$137.94

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

xcaiox

Invested

$100

Value

$321.11

PnL

+$21.11

Record

77%

200-61 (261)

KimchiCapital

Invested

$115.26

Value

$131.43

PnL

+$16.16

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

ghorrock

Invested

$101.36

Value

$98.43

PnL

-$2.94

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$161.97

Value

$74.75

PnL

-$87.21

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.89

Value

$44.73

PnL

-$12.16

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100

Invested

$15.3

Value

$39.23

PnL

+$23.93

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

2145h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.1%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.