Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 95¢ · $700 held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$699.99
$57.88
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
732h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Talophex | Noavg 94.7¢ | $473.4 | $469.75 | -$3.65 | 91% 935-95 (1030) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $11.21 | $85.28 | +$74.06 | 45% 2415-2986 (5401) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $92.97 | $71.27 | -$21.7 | 43% 470-622 (1092) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $34.91 | $38.4 | +$3.48 | 58% 18932-13926 (32858) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $29.3 | $33.27 | +$3.98 | 41% 2003-2843 (4846) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.01 | $2.02 | +$1.71 | 51% 2132-2039 (4171) |
TalophexInvested
$473.4
Value
$469.75
PnL
-$3.65
Record
91%
935-95 (1030)
Invested
$11.21
Value
$85.28
PnL
+$74.06
Record
45%
2415-2986 (5401)
Invested
$92.97
Value
$71.27
PnL
-$21.7
Record
43%
470-622 (1092)
Invested
$34.91
Value
$38.4
PnL
+$3.48
Record
58%
18932-13926 (32858)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$29.3
Value
$33.27
PnL
+$3.98
Record
41%
2003-2843 (4846)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$2.02
PnL
+$1.71
Record
51%
2132-2039 (4171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.