Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$2.4K
-$22.81
89.2¢ → 92¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI simpleman | Noavg 89.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$44.83 | 47% 456-520 (976) |
HO HotDogs | Noavg 88.7¢ | $626.92 | $650.56 | +$23.64 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $81.81 | $82.88 | +$1.08 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
FA failstoberCTR | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $165.45 | $76 | -$89.45 | 26% 351-985 (1336) |
 mombil<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.55 | $4.87 | +$0.32 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $7.5 | $4 | -$3.5 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $1.96 | $2.24 | +$0.28 | 57% 3068-2356 (5424) |
Invested
$1,500.01
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$44.83
Record
47%
456-520 (976)
Invested
$626.92
Value
$650.56
PnL
+$23.64
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
Invested
$81.81
Value
$82.88
PnL
+$1.08
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$165.45
Value
$76
PnL
-$89.45
Record
26%
351-985 (1336)
mombil<$100Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.87
PnL
+$0.32
Record
55%
1191-966 (2157)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
$4
PnL
-$3.5
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.96
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$0.28
Record
57%
3068-2356 (5424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.