Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 63¢ · $868 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$868.12
-$65.56
62.6¢ → 63¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
122h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 61.1¢ | $1.0K | $338.42 | -$69.65 | 35% 17512-32753 (50265) |
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1 | Noavg 64¢ | $12.8 | $291.8 | +$8.27 | 43% 688-904 (1592) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 65.7¢ | $109.52 | $94.56 | -$6.42 | 53% 7830-6946 (14776) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 65.5¢ | $52.4 | $77.4 | -$3.2 | 54% 22016-19110 (41126) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $35.08 | $43.52 | +$6.75 | 42% 5383-7429 (12812) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 66.4¢ | $17.38 | $16.13 | -$1.25 | 27% 6631-18348 (24979) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $12.79 | $6.3 | -$0.06 | 60% 11476-7595 (19071) |
Invested
$1,045.3
Value
$338.42
PnL
-$69.65
Record
35%
17512-32753 (50265)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$291.8
PnL
+$8.27
Record
43%
688-904 (1592)
Invested
$109.52
Value
$94.56
PnL
-$6.42
Record
53%
7830-6946 (14776)
Invested
$52.4
Value
$77.4
PnL
-$3.2
Record
54%
22016-19110 (41126)
Invested
$35.08
Value
$43.52
PnL
+$6.75
Record
42%
5383-7429 (12812)
Invested
$17.38
Value
$16.13
PnL
-$1.25
Record
27%
6631-18348 (24979)
Invested
$12.79
Value
$6.3
PnL
-$0.06
Record
60%
11476-7595 (19071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.