Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$4.8K
$170.18
54.1¢ → 50.5¢
-7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
56h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Yesavg 59¢ | $2.5K | $2.2K | -$339.28 | 47% 474-534 (1008) |
 paddaa | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $850 | $1.0K | +$194.61 | 56% 836-644 (1480) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 62.1¢ | $126.09 | $771.68 | +$153.61 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 40.2¢ | $457.57 | $565.21 | +$107.64 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $75.99 | $144.48 | +$68.49 | 57% 47-36 (83) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $120.65 | $103.28 | -$17.37 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
 GonTanaka<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $4.95 | $7.65 | +$2.48 | 57% 173-128 (301) |
Invested
$2,502.19
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$339.28
Record
47%
474-534 (1008)
paddaaInvested
$850
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$194.61
Record
56%
836-644 (1480)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$126.09
Value
$771.68
PnL
+$153.61
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
Invested
$457.57
Value
$565.21
PnL
+$107.64
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
EsperanzasDESTROYERInvested
$75.99
Value
$144.48
PnL
+$68.49
Record
57%
47-36 (83)
IstarothInvested
$120.65
Value
$103.28
PnL
-$17.37
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
GonTanaka<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
$7.65
PnL
+$2.48
Record
57%
173-128 (301)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.